On December 30, the Census Bureau issued its latest population numbers, going up through July 2019. Here is a link to the press release; and here is a link to various charts and graphs of statistics. These numbers do not come from a nationwide official count, but rather are estimates based on sampling. Nevertheless, they should closely approximate what we are likely to find when the official count takes place in April.

The long-time official spin on U.S. population changes has been that people are leaving the cold North and East in favor of the warmer South and West. Hey, people like warmer weather! But while there may be something to that, a closer look supports a strong inference that what people really like is lower taxes, even if accompanied by a lower level of government spending and services. In other words, the news is not good for “blue model” governance.

Some ten states are estimated to have lost population in the year from July 2018 to July 2019; they are Alaska, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Vermont and West Virginia. Many of those declines are small, and perhaps based on special circumstances (e.g., the decline of Alaska’s North Slope oil fields). But two states stand out for remarkably large losses. The leader is my own New York, with a loss of about 77,000 residents — 0.39% of population in one year. New York has lost more than 1% of its residents since the population peaked (at 19.654 million) in 2015. A close second in numerical loss — and even higher in percentage loss — is Illinois, with a loss of about 51,000 in 2019 over 2018, or about 0.4% of population. Illinois has lost about 1.3% of population since a peak (at 12.895 million) in 2013.

Here in New York, the Big City is actually gaining population, and the suburbs are basically holding their own. That means that the vast territory known as upstate — until recently about 40% of the state’s population — has lost something like 3-4% of its people in just the last few years.

And then there are New Jersey and Connecticut. Until relatively recently they were the big beneficiaries of tax-motivated outmigration from New York. No more. New Jersey instituted its income tax in 1976, with a top rate of 2.5%; and Connecticut remained without an income tax until 1991, when it started with a flat rate of 4.5%. Today, New Jersey has a rate of 8.97% for income over $500,000, and then a top rate of 10.75% for income over $5 million. In Connecticut, the top rate is 6.99% for income over $500,000. For New York State, the rate for income above $323,000 is 6.85% until you get to $2.155 million, when it goes to 8.82%. Throw in another 3.6% or so for New York City. As you can see, New Jersey and Connecticut have almost completely forfeited their income tax advantage over the New York suburbs. And even with respect to the City, the New Jersey and Connecticut tax advantage is sufficiently small that it won’t attract any large number of people. If you’re considering leaving New York City for tax reasons (and believe me, I have thought about it), why would you uproot yourself just to go to New Jersey for some potential marginal savings (which they could take away at any time), when you can go to Florida and save the entire state income tax bite? Bottom line: both New Jersey and Connecticut have joined the shrinking population club.

Meanwhile, although the overall rate of population increase has declined for the entire country, the no-income-tax states continue their very strong relative growth. Texas added some 367,000 people in 2019 over 2018, a one-year growth rate of 1.29%. In Florida, the addition was 233,000, or 1.17%. Nevada had the highest percentage growth of all, at 1.77% (53,000 additional residents). These numbers may not seem like a lot, but remember, this is just one year. Since the 2010 census, Texas has added 3.85 million people, or 15.3% of its starting population. In Florida the addition since 2010 has been 2.67 million people, or 14.2% of starting population. New York has actually grown slightly since 2010, but only by 85,000 people or 0.4% of starting population. Goodbye Congressional seats!

And how about California? California actually had a slight population increase in 2019 over 2018, about 51,000 people on a base of 39.461 million, or 0.12%. But the bigger story is how California has managed to kill off its previous rapid growth by instituting the nation’s highest income taxes, among other crazy progressive policies. From 2010 to 2015, California added 300,000 and more people each year, close to a 1% annual increase. As recently as 2012, California’s top income tax rate was 10%, but in that year they put it up to 13.3%, the highest in the country. Since then, growth has gradually slowed to a crawl. And don’t forget many other increasingly crazy policies, perhaps the most notable of which are intentionally driving up the cost of electricity and gasoline to highest or near-highest in the country with the idea of changing the weather by making the people poorer. (I know it sounds ridiculous, but it’s true.).

Although California’s population still showed some growth, such remaining growth as there is represents international in-migration just barely exceeding very large net domestic out-migration. According to the Census Bureau press release, California had net domestic out-migration in 2019 over 2018 of over 203,000, which is more than 0.5% of population. Is it any wonder that progressive Californians would like to see lots more international immigration, whether legal or illegal? If President Trump continues to slow the flow of illegal immigrants, I would expect California to start showing a declining population within a year or two.