For the past four years, the Republicans have held voting control of the U.S. Senate, but by very narrow margins. Since 2017, the Republicans have had either 51, 52 or 53 seats, out of 100, at various times. That has meant that on any given vote, a handful of Republican defectors would be sufficient to sink whatever initiative was on the table. And thus a very small group of independent-minded Republican Senators — most prominently, Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Mitt Romney of Utah, and (until his death in 2018) John McCain of Arizona — held the keys to any Republican plans to get legislation enacted or government officers confirmed.

As a prime example, who can forget the Hamlet act of Senator Collins in the run-up to the Kavanaugh confirmation?

Now, the Senate is going to be split right down the middle, 50/50, with Vice President Kamala Harris having the ability to break a tie when everyone shows up and the vote goes along party lines. Suddenly, the question of whether there might be a couple of potential defectors on the Democratic side — or maybe even just one — becomes significant.

The situation of an even split in the Senate, with the VP breaking the tie, has occurred a few times in U.S. history. For example, one such time was during the presidency of Dwight Eisenhower in the 1950s, when the tie-breaking VP was Richard Nixon. Most recently there was a 50/50 Senate split in 2001, after the very close 2000 presidential election. VP Dick Cheney had the swing vote; but that only lasted for a few months. In May 2001 a Republican Senator from Vermont named Jim Jeffords decided to switch parties and become an “independent,” however “caucusing” with the Democrats. That act immediately swung the balance of power in the Senate to the Democrats.

Unlike the Republicans, the Democrats have recently had a remarkably cohesive caucus. Perhaps that is because the Democrats all really believe in the program of the progressive left (possible), or perhaps it is because the potential waverers are cowed by the threat of the cancel mob. However, there is at least one guy in a very unique position. That is Joe Manchin of West Virginia. Suddenly, he looks to be the most important guy in the Senate.

You may know that West Virginia is a very blue-collar state that has recently voted heavily Republican in national elections. In the 2020 election, President Trump won West Virginia over Joe Biden by an enormous margin of almost 40 points — 69.6% to 29.7%. There was also a 2020 Senate race in West Virginia, that was never really in doubt; the Republican incumbent Shelley Moore Capito ran even a little ahead of Trump, defeating her Democratic opponent by 70.3% to 27.0%. On the same night, Republican Governor Jim Justice was re-elected with a somewhat smaller, but still “landslide” margin of 64% to 32%. In 2016 Trump had won the state over Hillary Clinton by an even larger margin of more than 40 points — 68.5% to 26.4%.

So how about Manchin? A former governor of the state, he undoubtedly has a good deal of personal popularity. He was up for re-election in 2018, and was considered one of the most vulnerable Democrats. However, he won narrowly, with less than 50% of the vote, 49.6% to 46.3%, over a relatively weak Republican opponent.

Manchin has already shown multiple signs of being the weak link in the Democratic Senate chain. For example, in 2018 he was the lone Democrat to vote in favor of the Kavanaugh confirmation. In the 2020 effort to impeach Trump, Manchin remained undecided until the last minute, but he ultimately did vote to convict. On the other hand, Manchin has denounced the latest effort in the House to impeach Trump. The New York Post today quotes Manchin as saying, on the subject of the new impeachment, “I think this is so ill-advised for Joe Biden to be coming in, trying to heal the country, trying to be the president of all the people when we are going to be so divided and fighting again.”

The big question is, is Manchin going to go along with the sweeping enactment of the agenda of the progressive left: end the filibuster; pack the Supreme Court; statehood for Puerto Rico and DC; the Green New Deal; massive tax hikes; Medicare for all; “free” college; trillions of additional “stimulus” spending; “reparations” for blacks; etc., etc., etc.

Start with the filibuster and the Supreme Court. According to a piece in the Washington Examiner today, back in November, Manchin had this to say in an appearance on Fox News with Bret Baier:

“I commit to you tonight, and I commit to all of your viewers and anyone else who’s watching … when they talk about packing the courts or ending the filibuster, I will not vote to do that,” Manchin told Baier in November. “Brett, this system, this Senate is [such a] unique body in the world. It was made to work together in a bipartisan way, and once you start breaking down those barriers, then you lose everything.”

The Examiner piece also says that Manchin reaffirmed those positions just yesterday.

And how about the Green New Deal? If there is one item that is central to the left’s agenda, it is the coercive transformation of our entire energy system in the crusade to “save the planet” from fossil fuels. The problem is that West Virginia is a major energy-producing state, and in particular is heavily dependent on production of the fuel that the left hates the most, coal. According to Public Utility Fortnightly from June 2020, although there are only 15,440 “direct” coal mining jobs in the state, there are an additional 37,463 jobs for contractors and support personnel; and those numbers do not include additional people working in things like retail and construction who depend on the spending of the coal industry workers. In a state with only about 700,000 jobs total, the coal industry supports something like 15-20% of the entire economy.

The plan of the GND, among many other things, is to wipe out the coal industry as quickly as possible. Is a Senator from West Virginia really going to go along with that? In March 2019, in connection with voting against a Green New Deal resolution that came before the Senate, Manchin released a statement that contained the following:

“I have said it before: manmade climate change is real and it’s a serious threat to our citizens, to our economy, to our environment, to our national security and to our world. This climate problem is a massive one and we must act, but aspirational documents will not solve this crisis –real solutions focused on innovation will.  That’s why I’m concentrating on how our country can produce affordable, reliable, dependable energy 24/7 that will help us meet our emissions reductions goals.  And I’m working to make sure that we do it in a way that incentivizes nations like China and India to address the global climate crisis as well.   The truth is even if we zero out our country’s use of fossil fuels tomorrow, we must face the facts that other nations have invested in and will continue to use fossil fuels to develop their economies for decades to come.”

He’s dancing as fast as possible to play both sides, much as Biden did in the presidential debates. However, he is going to come under enormous pressure from the left not to be the guy who blocks their grand energy plans. But going along with their plans means the complete sell-out of his constituents.

The truth is that there is no place for Manchin in today’s Democratic Party. But he hasn’t quite figured that out yet. Maybe some of the Senate Republicans can help him see the light.

UPDATE, January 13: A few additional thoughts, mostly in response to comments:

• Does Manchin lose clout if he switches parties? I don’t think so. To switch, he can probably demand and get the committee chairmanship of his choice. Then, as a Republican, he can still play the Collins/Murkowski/Romney game whenever he wants. Switching parties really doesn’t affect how he will vote; the main effect is whether McConnell or Schumer will be Majority Leader, which mainly affects what issues come up for a vote.

• It may be politically convenient for Manchin to have McConnell as Majority Leader, rather than Schumer. Schumer will keep putting items on the progressive wish list up for vote and force Manchin to go along publicly or stand in opposition. McConnell can just quietly bury all the Democrat’s favorite progressive initiatives, and save Manchin the hassle.

• The fly in my ointment is that I’m assuming Manchin wants to remain popular and likely run for re-election in 2024. But he is 73 now, and will be 77 in 2024, when he may well retire. If so, the risk is that he convinces himself that he is saving the world by helping to usher in the progressive utopia, and his constituents be damned.