Today is primary day — and recall day — in California. I’m writing this on the East coast before any election returns are in. But there is some modest hope of a slight retreat from the worst excesses of progressivism.

Joel Kotkin — professor at Chapman University out there — weighs in with a June 5 column at Spiked, sounding a small note of optimism. The headline and sub-headline are “America’s great cities are gripped by decline and disorder. Voters have had enough of ‘progressive’ leaders who are presiding over spiralling violence and crime.” Excerpt:

For the past decade, America’s urban centres have been increasingly run by ‘progressive’ activists. Yet today, as US cities reel from collapsed economies, rising crime and pervasive corruption, there’s something of a revolt brewing, the success of which may well determine the role and trajectory of our great urban centres.

Kotkin focuses on two races on the California ballot, and a few more somewhat recent ones around the country. In California there is (1) the effort to recall San Francisco prosecutor Chesa Boudin, an “ultra-liberal” who “faces a potential recall amid rising crime rates,” and (2) the race for mayor of Los Angeles, “likely to lead to a head-to-head between moderate billionaire developer Rick Caruso and progressive congressperson Karen Bass.” Kotkin thinks that Boudin is likely to get tossed, and Caruso will get on the ballot where he will have a good shot in the fall. Elsewhere around the country, Kotkin notes a handful of other encouraging developments, like the moderate Democratic mayors now running New York and Houston, the Buffalo mayoral election where a moderate defeated a socialist-backed candidate, and even the recent recall of several San Francisco school board members.

Fair enough. But let’s keep some perspective. These are a few modest gains in a sea of bad news.

The fact is that around the United States, big city governments, almost always controlled by Democrats, continue to run their towns into the ground. And there is little hope of significant change from an election any time soon.

Murder rates in many of the big Democrat-run cities are in the stratosphere, and only have increased in the past several years. Chicago had 797 murders in 2021, a rate of 30 per 100,000, and the city’s largest number of murders in 25 years. Chicago is run by super-progressive Mayor Lori Lightfoot and progressive prosecutor Kim Foxx. Other large Democrat-run cities are even far worse. The murder rate in St. Louis for 2021 was an astounding 67.8 per 100K; in Detroit it was 46 per 100K; in Baltimore it was 56 per 100K; in Cleveland 44 per 100K; and in Philadelphia 36 per 100K. All of these places are also afflicted by high taxes, fleeing businesses, and declining populations. The chances in these places of any significant change in government from the next election is virtually nil. Somehow, the voters are not tired of it.

In New York, since January 1 we have new Mayor Eric Adams, who although a Democrat talks a moderate game, following 8 years of the super-progressive Bill de Blasio. To remind readers of our history, we had 20 years of Republican mayors (Giuliani and Bloomberg) from 1994 to 2013, and during that time our murder rate went from almost 30 per 100K all the way down to about 4 per 100K — an astounding achievement. De Blasio then did his best to undo things, and by the time he left office at the end of last year, we were back up to 485 murders, for a rate of just under 6 per 100K. You can see that that rate is far better than the other cities cited, but still we are headed rapidly in the wrong direction. Although the new Mayor now talks a tough-on-crime stance, the state legislature is in the hands of the far left, and the New York County prosecutor (Alvin Bragg) is the same.

Meanwhile socialism is again on the march in Latin America. You would think that people would be able to learn from the experience of Venezuela, but it does not seem to be true. Chile has a new far left President (Boric) since March, and Colombia may be about to elect one of same in less than two weeks, on top of AMLO in Mexico, and plenty more.

So far the good news in the U.S. is indeed rather modest. Perhaps the mid-terms in November will represent a larger movement.