Resounding Echoes Of Watergate In The Susan Rice Email

It has now been a few days since Senators Grassley and Graham released a letter they had sent to ex-National Security Advisor Susan Rice, demanding information from her about a meeting held in the White House on January 5, 2017, and attaching to their letter a redacted copy of a remarkable email describing the meeting that Rice sent to herself on the government email system on January 20, 2017 at 12:15 PM.The Grassley/Graham letter and attached Rice email can be found here.   

You will recognize January 20 at 12:15 PM as being about 20 minutes after Donald Trump was sworn in as President, and therefore the same number of minutes after Susan Rice's term as National Security Advisor had ended. She had no further government business to do, and therefore had no possible legitimate purpose related to government business to write herself this email on the government email system.

 

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How To Change Minds On The Subject Of Climate Hysteria

Unfortunately, as I frequently point out to my colleagues, on important political issues, very few human minds can be changed by mere reason and logic, no matter how ironclad that reason and logic may be.  We may think we are creatures of reason, but that's only a veneer.  The famous quote is attributed to Jonathan Swift:  "Reasoning will never make a Man correct an ill Opinion, which by Reasoning he never acquired."  

On the other hand, there are things that can persuade even those who are very difficult to persuade.

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How Self-Delusional Can We Be On The Cost Of Electricity From "Renewables"?

With the New York Times, when it comes to promotion of the climate sin and redemption narrative, the big question is always the same:  Are they completely ignorant of the subject matter, or do they understand the subject matter, in which case they are intentionally trying to deceive you and their other readers?  It ought to be obvious which of the two it is, but incredibly it is not.  Could there even be a third alternative?  The only one I can think of is that what we have here is an extreme case of self-delusion, brought about by a need to believe in the official religion so overpowering that it prevents any consideration of actual facts or evidence.  

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Manhattan Contrarian In Investors Business Daily

An op-ed written by myself and co-author Jim Wallace appeared Wednesday afternoon in IBD, titled "With Tax Reform Done, Trump Should Set Record Straight On Climate Change."  Here is a link to the piece.

The piece summarizes the Wallace, et al., research on the subject of attribution (or lack thereof) of global temperature change to human influences.  I have previously covered the Wallace, et al., research reports when they have been issued, most notably in "The 'Science' Underlying Climate Alarmism Turns Up Missing" on September 19, 2016, and "The Greatest Scientific Fraud Of All Time -- Part XV" on July 8, 2017.  It has taken some time, but finally this work is seeing a somewhat wider audience.

Key quote from the IBD op-ed:

So, what is the actual science behind the EF [Endangerment Finding -- the Obama EPA's determination that CO2 constitutes a "danger" to human health and safety]?  We confidently assert that in any Red/Blue evaluation of the science, where the Blue team supports the EF, the Blue team will lose badly.

"Warmists" claim a 97% scientific consensus regarding the hypothesized catastrophic impact of increased atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and other GHGs. But this illusion of consensus has only come about through misrepresentation of global temperatures and research results plus rigid enforcement of orthodoxy and refusal to debate for some two decades.

In accordance with the scientific method, the EF has been shown to be invalid at least three separate times over the past two years. One of us (Wallace) is the lead author of three scientific research reports that, each in a unique fashion, invalidated all of the lines of evidence on which EPA claimed to rely for its EF.

Go to the IBD link to read the remainder of the piece.

More Late Stage Socialism At NYCHA

Here in New York City, we love to bash landlords.  First, we impose on many apartments a rent regulation regime that makes it almost impossible for landlords ever to raise the rent.  And then, woe be to any landlord who fails to provide heat or hot water on some cold day in the winter, or to fix a leak promptly.  This regime is guaranteed to engender a degree of animosity between landlords and tenants, and indeed it does so.  From time to time the authorities single out some particularly disliked landlord to make an example of, and have him sent to prison.

Obviously the answer to this exploitative capitalist housing system is a public ownership socialist model system.  And sure enough, New York City has gone for such a socialist model system in a big way with its publicly-owned low-income housing provider known as the New York City Housing Authority, or NYCHA.  NYCHA's exploits have previously been covered many times here at MC.  NYCHA is the landlord for about 180,000 apartments, mostly in what are called the "projects," that house in excess of 400,000 people, or about 5-6% of the City's population.

Surely then, the NYCHA projects have brought perfect justice and fairness to the housing of the low-income residents of New York?  Well, perhaps we had better check in on that.  The Wall Street Journal helpfully provides a detailed article on the subject in today's Greater New York section, headline "Residents Vent Over Housing Woes."  (may be behind pay wall)  Uh-oh, that headline already sounds ominous.  Here's the introduction:

More than 143,000, or 80%, of New York City’s 175,000 public housing apartments have been without heat or hot water at times this winter, city officials said Tuesday.  Tempers flared over widespread heat and hot water outages in New York City public housing at an unusually contentious City Council hearing. Some residents were in tears. . . .   Residents have been left without heat sporadically throughout the winter, on average for two days at a time, according to city officials. The outages, which the city has blamed on aging boilers, have affected more than 320,000 people.

Wait a minute -- I thought this is exactly the kind of ill treatment of tenants that public ownership was supposed to fix.  And it seems that the City Council thought that too, so they decided to hold a hearing on the subject yesterday, and to call the head of NYCHA, one Shola Olatoye, on the carpet.

“She has haplessly presided over a humanitarian crisis,” Councilman Ritchie Torres said.

So what is your answer, Shola?

Ms. Olatoye said she was struggling to maintain even basic services after decades of declines in federal funding. The city’s public housing agency has lost $3 billion in federal aid since 2001.

Really?  Funny, but I thought to check on that, and I was able to find "NYCHA Projected Revenue by Source" for 2003, and then "NYCHA 2016 Operating Plan Revenues."  And, believe it or not, the two are actually presented in the same format, thus facilitating direct comparison.  (Most bureaucracies would never allow such a thing to happen, and would gradually change the format of presentation over time so that you could never hold them accountable.  Probably, that only means that NYCHA is uniquely incompetent.)  Anyway, the answer is, in 2003 NYCHA got $664.2 million from the feds as "Federal Public Housing Operating Subsidy," and $680.6 million as "Federal Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher."  For 2016 those numbers became $910.0 million for "Federal Operating Subsidies" and $982.8 million for "Section 8 Subsidy."  

OK, the handouts may not have gone up as much as you would have liked, but how in the world do you get to characterize what are obviously large increases in funding as "los[ing] $3 billion in federal aid"?  A clue can be found in the big "NextGeneration NYCHA" Report that the de Blasio administration put out back in 2015.  At page 7 of that Report, we find a claim that NYCHA had suffered a "$1 Billion Loss in Operating Funding since 2001."  But when they describe that "loss," we find that the "loss" is not an actual decrease in funding, but rather a "loss" measured by comparison to some formula of increasing hypothetical amounts that they somehow think they ought to have gotten:

Annual Proration and Federal Operating Funding Cumulative Loss by Year
Of the total operating funding NYCHA is eligible for on an annual basis from HUD, NYCHA receives only a portion, due to lower Congressional appropriations. This is known as a prorated amount.
 

Got that?  Now, how Ms. Olatoye managed to jack up the $1 billion to $3 billion for her testimony at this hearing, I cannot explain.  But hey, when you have obviously gotten large increases in funding, and you nevertheless want to claim a "cut" based on some ginned-up calculation that you don't disclose and nobody would understand anyway, what's the difference whether it's $1 billion or $3 billion?  Why not make it $5 billion?

Another subject covered in the testimony at the hearing was the amount of necessary but unfunded capital repairs that need to be made on the NYCHA buildings.  In that "NextGeneration NYCHA" Report a couple of years ago, it was $17 billion.  Yesterday:

City officials also said for the first time Tuesday that the housing agency’s infrastructure needs total about $25 billion, up from $17 billion several years ago.

Mayor de Blasio was giving his own news conference across the street at about the same time, and somebody asked him for his comment on the NYCHA issues.  Here it is:

“People in public housing deserve the very best living standard we can give them with the money we have,” Mr. de Blasio said. “But do I think we in the public sector can achieve everything that a private sector can achieve, with much greater resources in the private sector? No, I don’t have that illusion.”

 Was that an admission that socialism doesn't work? 

New York's Patented Formula For Decline: Spend More To Get Less

In New York, we love to feel good about ourselves because of our great "compassion" in turning high taxes over to the government so that it can solve all human problems.  As you undoubtedly know, New York not only has a State income tax, and also a City income tax, and these are at such stratospheric levels as to place us right near the very top among the states.  (California actually has a top rate of 13% that slightly exceeds the maximum New York State plus City rate at the very highest income levels.)  The state closest to us in population -- Florida -- has no income tax.  

You may be less aware of some other comparisons between New York and Florida.  After rapid growth in recent years, Florida actually has slightly greater population:  20.1 million versus 19.8 million.  Yet New York's annual state budget is about double Florida's:  $150.7 billion for New York, versus $78.4 billion for Florida.  Surely, though, for all that money, New York would have a much lower poverty rate than Florida?  Not at all!  In fact, the most recent reported poverty rates for both New York (State) and Florida are exactly the same:  14.7%.  In New York City, where we spend even more money to cure poverty, the poverty rate is still higher:  15.4%.  Per student school spending for K-12?  In Florida it's $8881, and in New York $21,206.  Go through the NAEP data here, and you will find that Florida outperforms New York slightly in most categories.

Our current Governor, Andrew Cuomo, is just getting started on his re-election campaign for his third term.  The Republicans have at least one quality candidate running against him, Assemblyman Brian Kolb of upstate Geneva.  But Kolb is little known in New York City or its suburbs, home to close to 70% of the state's population.  Barring a melt-down by Cuomo, he is thought likely to cruise to an easy victory.  Would you think that New Yorkers might care that they pay double and more national norms for inferior outcomes in most areas?  Not that you can tell.  

And indeed, if anything Cuomo is busy doubling down on failure.  His two most recent big initiatives would seem to suggest that the whole idea of government in New York is to pay at least double what you need to to get basic services -- and perhaps far more.  Here are the two big initiatives:

Congestion pricing.  You may be aware that the New York subway system has experienced a recent spate of problems and extensive delays, leading some to start referring to the situation as a "crisis."  Beginning in November, the New York Times ran a series of big articles about the decline in maintenance and increase in problems and delays, for example here and here.  The series culminated with an article on December 28 by Brian Rosenthal, which finally got to the heart of the problem:  New York's costs of construction and capital maintenance for the subway are way out of line when compared to national and international norms.  In many instances the level of excess costs in New York runs five to ten times international norms.  In a post here at Manhattan Contrarian on December 30 I commented that various projects in the pipeline "cannot and should not be built" until the costs come under control.

Ah, but that is not the New York way!  On January 16 the New York Times reported that the "solution" that Governor Cuomo has come up with is a big new revenue raiser known as "congestion pricing," or, in other words, we're going to institute a charge to enter the southern half of Manhattan by car.  A few days later, a commission appointed by the Governor issued a report called FixNYC, laying out the proposal in considerable detail.  It looks like the charge will be around $11+ every time you come into the district.  (Wait a minute -- I live here!)  A version of the congestion pricing plan is now expected to be in the Governor's budget, due out soon.  

So how about doing something about the way-out-of-line costs before we just throw multiple new billions at this problem?  You will not be surprised to learn that there is not one single word about cost control in the FixNYC Report.  Hey, the Governor wants the support of the Transport Workers Union in the upcoming election, so what do you expect?  

Clean energy jobs and climate agenda.  That's the euphemistic title of the Governor's upcoming plans for the energy sector, released January 2.  Here are some highlights:

  • Expand Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and Reduce Emissions Equitably From the Highest-Polluting, High Demand "Peaker" Power Plants
  • Issue Solicitations in 2018 and 2019 to Develop at Least 800 MW of Offshore Wind Projects and Foster Offshore Wind Industry and Workforce in New York State
  • $200 Million Investment to Meet Unprecedented Energy Storage Target of 1,500 Megawatts by 2025 In Order to Increase Transmission of Clean and Renewable Energy
  • Create the Zero Cost Solar for All Program for 10,000 Low-Income New Yorkers

Where even to start?  Of course, once again, there is nothing in this proposal about costs.  Don't you know that this will create jobs?  The more money we waste the better!

OK, I'll start with the third bullet -- $200 million to provide 1500 MW of storage.  Do they know that storage is measured in MWH rather than MW?  As far as I know, after recent large price declines, you can get battery storage for about $200,000 per MWH.  The $200 million for 1500 MWH, if that's what they mean, would imply they're hoping for further price declines to about $133,000 per MWH, which may be optimistic, but perhaps not crazy.  But the problem is that New York State has a capacity requirement of 40,000 MW, which means it could use up to close to 1 million MWH of electricity per day (that's 40,000 x 24).  That 1500 MW(H) of batteries they are buying will be good for about 2 minutes of peak usage.  Wind power can go dead for days on end.  Do you want, say, three days worth of battery storage?  That will run you more like $300 billion -- about double a full year's worth of the entire state budget.  Do you think they would provide even the smallest amount of basic information about this extraordinary cost?  Sorry, that's not the New York way.

And then there's the hare-brained idea that we can get rid of our fossil fuel electricity and replace it with lots of "offshore" wind.  800 MW worth!  Oh, that's around 2% of our peak capacity requirement -- and wind doesn't work most of the time, only when it feels like it.  Robert Bryce of the Manhattan Institute had a piece in the New York Post on Friday, dissecting the craziness of this proposal, headline "Cuomo's latest green-power fiasco."  Key quote:

According to the latest data from the Energy Information Administration, by 2022 producing a megawatt hour of electricity from offshore wind will cost a whopping $145.90.  Offshore wind promoters claim costs are declining. Maybe so. But according to the New York Independent System Operator, the average cost of wholesale electricity in the state last year was $36.56.

So the offshore wind starts out at a cost about four times that of our existing sources of power, and that's before you get to the extra costs for back-up, and storage (see above) and transmission that go along with the offshore turbines.  By the time you're done making a full system that actually works 24/7, the total costs could easily be ten times what we currently pay.

But, that's how we do it here in New York.  Cuomo will likely cruise to victory.