September 21, 2024

Why There Will Never Be A Zero Emissions Electricity System Powered Mainly By Wind And Sun

September 21, 2024/ Francis Menton

“Net Zero” — That’s the two-word slogan that has been adopted as the official goal of every virtuous state or country for decarbonizing its energy system. The “net” part is backhanded recognition that some parts of the energy system (like maybe air travel or steelmaking) may never be fully de-carbonized. Thus some kind of offsets or indulgences may need to be accepted to claim achievement of the goal.
But the “net” thing is not for the easy parts of decarbonization. And by the easy parts, I mean the generation of electricity, and the powering of anything that can be run on electricity or batteries. In electrifiable parts of the energy system, there is to be no tolerance for “net”; only “zero emissions” will do. The official line is that zero emissions electricity is easy and cheap because it can be provided by the wind and sun.
The official line is wrong. As the build-out of these wind and solar generation systems continues to progress, it has become increasingly obvious that there will never be a zero-emissions electricity system powered mainly by wind and sun.

September 18, 2024

The Economic Record Of Socialism -- China

September 18, 2024/ Francis Menton

China has proudly proclaimed itself to be a Communist country ever since Mao Zedong came to power in the late 1940s. I understand the term “Communism” in the context of a country like China to mean a socialist (state-directed and controlled) economic system with the additional element of political repression allowing no dissent from official orthodoxy.
China’s economic history is a bit more complex than just 75 years of tightly-controlled socialism. Its economy languished (including the usual mass deaths and starvation) for the first 40 or so years of Communist rule.
Next, under party leader Deng Xiaoping and successors from the mid-1980s for about 30+ years, China allowed a substantial private economy to emerge and flourish. During those years it experienced rapid economic growth, and in that very short period of time its economy became the second largest in the world after the U.S. (however, more like 70th place if ranked by per capita GDP).
Then in 2013, current strongman Xi Jinping came to power. In the most recent decade under Xi’s rule, the political repression has been greatly ramped up, the central planners have reasserted their pre-eminence, and the private economy has been gradually strangled.
So how is China faring under its most recent regimen of tightly-controlled socialism, central planning, and state-directed investment?

September 15, 2024

September 15, 2024/ Francis Menton

With a radical far-leftist in serious contention for the presidency in our upcoming election, it is worthwhile to check in on the record of leftism and socialism in other countries.
It so happens that pretty much every country to our South in the Western Hemisphere has a long history of some variety of leftist/socialist politics. With a few exceptions here and there, when there has been an election in Latin America in my lifetime, the winning strategy has been to run against the “Yanqui imperialists” and advance a program of “social justice” and redistribution.
Particular policies vary from country to country, but the usual playbook includes such things as massive government intervention in the economy, government ownership of major companies (starting with the energy industry), central planning, requirements of multiple licenses and permits to start any business, and many more such.
Recent elections have continued or returned leftists to power in all but one of the most important countries — Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile.

September 13, 2024

September 13, 2024/ Francis Menton

In the aftermath of Tuesday’s debate, it’s appropriate to try to figure out where the candidates stand on some of the important issues.
With Trump, that’s not very hard: he has a limited number of themes that are mostly quite specific, and he repeats them endlessly.
But with Harris, it’s remarkably difficult. Many of her positions today seem to be different from, if not the opposite of, where she stood when last she articulated a list of positions, which was during her brief campaign for the Democratic nomination in 2019. In the current campaign, she rarely addresses a significant issue directly. During the debate, when asked to address some issues, she resorted to carefully scripted talking points that could be subject to multiple interpretations.
But then we have the actual record of the Biden/Harris administration to use to interpret any intentionally ambiguous statements. Actions speak much louder than words.

September 09, 2024

September 09, 2024/ Francis Menton

As many readers likely know, New York is the center of the legal profession in this country.
New York City has a large community of major law firms that advise the business community both across the country and also internationally. This is the industry in which I had my own career prior to retiring from it in 2016.
There are large numbers of distinguished practitioners who are highly sought out for every sort of legal problem. We have multiple well-known bar associations — notably the Association of the Bar of the City of New York (known as the City Bar) and the New York State Bar Association — once respected for their contributions to the betterment of the legal system and the rule of law.
All of which makes what follows nearly incomprehensible to me. In recent years the law enforcement and court systems of New York have become highly politicized in ways that are the antithesis of the rule of law.

September 07, 2024

September 07, 2024/ Francis Menton

Plenty of virtuous places (New York, California, UK, Australia) want to compete for the mantle of “climate leader.” But let’s face it, at least among places with significant population, nobody can top Germany.
In Germany, they got started on a massive build-out of wind and solar electricity generation way back in the early 1990s. By year-end 2023, they had total wind and solar nameplate electricity generation capacity of 148 GW, which is about 2.5 times average demand (of about 60 GW) and about 1.5 times peak demand (of about 100 GW). So surely, the days of fossil fuels in Germany must be numbered.
Time for another update on Germany’s progress toward energy nirvana.
The bottom line is that, like the Red Queen, Germany is running faster and faster to stay in place. In the meantime, it is destroying its economy.